Predictions are funny things. We often make them but rarely stick around to see whether or not they come true. This is probably because hindsight can so often make an ass of us, and who wants to be made an ass of?

But at the start of this year we dusted off the LeftLion crystal ball and made a few predictions of our own as to how we saw the videogames industry shaping up in 2007. And rather than abdicate ourselves from them, perhaps with a comment of 'well who’d have seen that coming?' we thought we’d revisit them. So how was 2007 for Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo?

What we said about Microsoft

Three games to own: Project Gotham Racing 4, Alan Wake, Halo 3.

Prediction: An increasingly eclectic line up make it a worthy purchase, but as the PS3 finds its feet, a shortage of horsepower threatens to leave it treading water in the home straight.

What we should have said: The Xbox 360 has had a brilliant year and what has surprised many people is just how little ground Sony has been able to make up on them. The release of the sexy black Elite model, complete with 120GB hard drive and HDMI support certainly helped in the battle for the hearts and minds of techno junkies, but really, the mantra of 2007 has been “it’s all about the games”.

Ok, so Alan Wake never made it onto shelves, but he wasn’t missed. The release of Halo 3 was the event of the year, with a marketing campaign and launch party that would have put to shame a Hollywood blockbuster. Thankfully the game itself proved to be worth the fuss with an epic campaign and multiplayer action that will very likely endure for years to come.

But amazingly, Halo 3 was by no means the best the 360 had to offer. In fact it was arguably not even the best First Person Shooter (FPS) of the year. BioShock, The Orange Box, and the quite breath-takingly bombastic Call of Duty 4 could all make equally compelling cases for that accolade, and together resulted in a very expensive couple of months for gamers who had to have them all!

Factor in Colin McRae: Dirt, Project Gotham Racing 4 and Forza 2 for petrol heads, Mass Effect and Blue Dragon on the RPG front, Virtua Tennis 3, NHL 2008 and improves instalments of Fifa and Pro Evo for sports fans, and the wonderful Crackdown, and you had a line up to conquer all. And while a number of them were multi-format titles, the wealth of support for Xbox Live meant many of the 360 versions offered superior online options.

A subplot to this success has been Microsoft’s battle with an on-going PR disaster that could have sunk a lesser console. Terminal hardware failures caused by overheating issues – or the Red Ring of Death in gaming parlance – have afflicted an untold number of users and forced them to extend the warranty to three years on this issue. It speaks volumes for the popularity of Xbox Live that gamers have largely forgiven (or at least grudgingly accepted) them for releasing a flawed machine. Of course, if Microsoft can continue to guarantee software of such divine quality in 2008 –perhaps Grand Theft Auto 4 or Gears of War 2 anyone – then it is hard to see how the 360 won’t remain the gamer’s console of choice.


What we said about Sony:

Three games to own: Motorstorm, Lair, Metal Gear Solid 4

Prediction: Is Blu-ray the new Betamax? Will gamers baulk at the cost? Is this sexy black piece of kit Sony's White elephant? Don't count on it. One price drop away from being the ultimate must-have console.

What we should have said:
It has been something of a struggle for Sony this year – and that has been one of the truly big surprises of 2007. Of course no manufacturer has a divine right to be Number One – Atari, Nintendo and Sega have all fallen from pre-eminence at one stage or other – but the slipping of Sony’s crown has been the first real sign of fallibility from the Japanese giant.

Once the early adopters had forked out £500 for their Playstation 3 bundles in March, the sales figures stagnated. Comparisons with the performance of the Wii may have been unfair (stories of Nintendo outselling Sony by six-to-one presupposed the two were in direct competition) but few would dispute that the PS3 lagging behind the PS2 was not bad for the business.

Eventually Sony saw some sense and released a 40GB version of the console, but soured the sugar pill slightly by removing its backwards compatibility and several USB ports. Industry analysts will certainly be scouring the sales figures in January for signs that Sony had a bumper Christmas.

Part of the problem is that the games have simply not provided a compelling reason to own a PS3 instead of – or as well as – a 360. Motorstorm certainly had the looks but proved a touch shallow in play, while Lair looked even better but had all the playability of a dirty syringe. Heavenly Sword was quite beautiful to behold (have you guessed the pattern yet) but failed to live up to the hype.

It was left to a pair of unknowns – arena shoot em up Warhawk and Tomb Raider tribute Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune – and the return of reliable franchise Ratchet and Clank to spare Sony’s blushes. Unlike the critically acclaimed Call of Duty 4 and The Orange Box, all three are exclusives and that is what the PS3 needs right now.

With Metal Gear 4 slipping into next year, along with promising FPS Haze (from Nottingham-based developers Free Radical Design), PS3 owners have every reason to feel optimistic that 2008 will see their console begin to really flex its superior specs. For Sony’s sake, it will need to, because for the first time since it entered the market, it is playing catch up.


What we said about Nintendo:

Three games to own:
Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, Super Smash Brothers: Brawl

Prediction: Those who thought the Gamecube would be the big N's last foray into hardware reckoned without this curveball from leftfield. If the Wii receives the third party support denied to its predecessor, it has every chance of capturing the hearts and minds of gamers – and beyond.

What we should have said: So who says you need great games to sell consoles? Well, I did for one, just a couple of paragraphs ago. And yet here within the same article we find quite the opposite. By no stretch of the imagination has 2007 been a vintage year gaming-wise for Nintendo. Sure, there have been lots of games, but precisely 1.3% have been worth buying, with too many reheated ports and ill-considered stabs at making use of both consoles’ innovative control mechanisms.

And yet this has had precisely 0.0% effect on sales. Both have dominated their respective markets and so difficult has it become finding a store that has the Wii in stock that a veritable online industry has set up devoted to locating them. Nintendo’s inability – or refusal if you believe some rumours – to keep pace with the demand will inevitably mean disappointment for many this Christmas.

So why has this happened, and why the continued success? Well, the drought of good software owes much to the fact that with the exception of Nintendo itself, very few developers have come close to taking advantage of the Wii’s capabilities. Resident Evil 4 is perhaps the one exception – and that had the fortune of being based on the exceptional Gamecube original. Nintendo simply cannot make up the shortfall – although in qualitative terms, Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption and Legend of Zelda: The Phantom Hourglass (on the DS) are handsome compensations. Galaxy in particular has had many a jaded reviewer reaching for the dictionary in search of long-forgotten superlatives.

But the concept of the Wii and the DS is so attractive that this lack of AAA software, titles that the hardcore gamer demands, has not hampered hardware sales. The wide demographic can support it regardless – and that is why this Christmas, you are just as likely to see Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games or High School Musical: Sing It at the top of the charts as anything else.

You have to credit Nintendo’s vision. While everyone else was betting on high definition technology and processors with the power of a small country, the old wise old master of the industry redefined the paradigm of play – and invited your whole family to join in.

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